Science, Policy and Epidemiology
Workshop, University of Florence,
Department of Statistics
November 21-23, 2011
Sponsorship of The International
Biometric Society, Italian Region
Faculty:
- Silvio Funtowicz (SVT, Bergen University)
- Jeroen van der Sluijs (Utrecht University)
- Andrea Saltelli (EC JRC)
Chairperson: Annibale Biggeri (University of Florence)
Description: the workshop aims at discussing the foundations of the Science-Policy interaction and focuses on Epidemiology and Prevention. The modern (classical) paradigm in which researchers quantify the strength of empirical evidence to be used in governance decision processes may fail when facing complex problems, uncertain knowledge and risks. Several approaches have been proposed in order to bridge the gap created in the legitimation of political action (e.g. precautionary principle, extended participation), each with its own characteristic complications .The workshop will review the basis of the modern conceptual model of rational decision making, the emergence of probability and the role of statistical information, and their limitations (irreducible uncertainty, conflicting certainties, indeterminacy, conflict of interests). It will also explore novel approaches and alternatives in a context where trust is in decline.
The workshop is scheduled to run on a three days basis.
On day 1, the conceptual background
and current practices will be reviewed. Real examples will be presented
and discussed by the participants.
On day 2, new approaches, including an innovative framework for uncertainty
management will be explored, enabling different sorts of uncertainty in
quantitative information to be analysed and communicated in a standardised
and user-friendly way. Examples and experiences on these approaches will
be discussed.
On day 3, the workshop will focus on uncertainty and extended knowledge
assessment. Global sensitivity analysis will be formalised and real examples
will be developed with the participants.
Participants come from different backgrounds:
1- epidemiologists
2- statisticians
3- citizen committees' members
4- scientific journalists
5- health managers, local or national representatives, trustees
The workshop is on a closed
format.
For those interested to participate please send by e-mail a letter of
intent specifying your background, a CV and an abstract of a real example
you aim to present to:
Annibale Biggeri
Department of Statistics "G. Parenti"
University of Florence
Viale Morgagni 59
50134 Florence (IT)
abiggeri@ds.unifi.it
Powerpoints:
- Andrea Saltelli 23 Nov 2011
- Silvio Funtowicz 21 Nov 2011
- Jeroen van der Sluijs: Dealing with uncertainty - part 1
- Jeroen van der Sluijs: Dealing with uncertainty - part 2
- Jeroen van der Sluijs: Examples of application of the NUSAP system
- Powerpoints of case studies etc. (60 MB zipfile)
- Video Radio Vaticana (20 MB wmv file)
Related materials:
Download all related materials in a zipfile [**updated 23-11-2011**]S. Funtowicz, R. Strand. (2011) Change and commitment: beyond risk and responsibility. Journal of Risk Research, DOI:10.1080/13669877.2011.571784 first published on: 13 May 2011 (iFirst).
A. Saltelli, B. D'Hombres. (2010) Sensitivity analysis didn't help. A practitioner's critique of the Stern review. Global Environmental Change, 20:298-302.
J.P. van der Sluijs, A.C. Petersen, P.H.M. Janssen, James S Risbey and Jerome R. Ravetz (2008). Exploring the quality of evidence for complex and contested policy decisions, Environmental Research Letters, 3 024008 (9pp)
Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, Matthieu Craye, Silvio Funtowicz, Penny Kloprogge, Jerry Ravetz, and James Risbey (2005). Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model based Environmental Assessment: the NUSAP System, Risk Analysis, 25 (2). p. 481-492
A. Saltelli (2002) Global
Sensitivity Analysis: An Introduction. EU ISPRA
S. Funtowicz, J Ravetz. (1993)
Science
for the post-normal age. Futures, 25:739-755.
J.A. Curry and P.J. Webster, (2011) Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
J.P. van der Sluijs
(2005), Uncertainty as a monster in the science
policy interface: four coping strategies. Water science and technology,
52 (6), 87-92.
Further Reading:
- Andrea Saltelli
and Paola Annoni 2010. How to
avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis
- Dankel et al., 2011 Advice under uncertainty in the marine system
- UNESCO COMEST (2005) The Precautionary Principle
- Arthur C. Petersen, Albert Cath, Maria Hage, Eva Kunseler, and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs (2011). Post-Normal Science in Practice at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Science Technology & Human Values, 36 (3), 362-388.
- Van der Sluijs et al., 2010. Beyond consensus: reflections from a democratic perspective on the interaction between climate politics and science, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
- Roger Strand, Guri
Rørtveit, Yngvild S. Hannestad, Edvin Schei, 2010. Risk,
Uncertainty and Indeterminacy
in Clinical Decisions: Rationality, Science and the Legitimacy of Clinical Decisions, PrimaryCare 10 (12) 232-233. - Roger Strand et al., 2004, Complex Systems and Human Complexity in Medicine, Complexus 2004–05;2:2–6
- Climatic Change Special Issue on IPCC Uncertainty Guidance
- James Risbey e.a. 2011, Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research, Climatic Change
- Stakeholder Participation Guidance for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency:
- Uncertainty Communication: Issues and good practice
Related online course
E-learning course Knowledge Quality Assessment (work in progress)
Documentation for the case studies
The Radio vaticano trial
- Michelozzi et al, 2001. Adult and Childhood Leukemia near a High-Power Radio Station in Rome, Italy. American Journal of Epidemiology, 155, (12)
- Ha et al., 2007. Radio-Frequency Radiation Exposure from AM Radio Transmitters and Childhood Leukemia and Brain Cancer, American Journal of Epidemiology, 166 (3)
- IARC 2011 press
release IARC CLASSIFIES
RADIOFREQUENCY ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS AS
POSSIBLY CARCINOGENIC TO HUMANS - Merzenich et al., 2008. Childhood Leukemia in Relation to Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields in the Vicinity of TV and Radio Broadcast Transmitters. 168 (10).
- De Jong e.a. in press. Assumptions in quantitative analyses of health risks of overhead power lines, Environmental Science & Policy
The smog trial / Ultra Fine Particles
- Hoek et al., 2010, Concentration Response Functions for Ultrafine Particles and All-Cause Mortality and Hospital Admissions: Results of a European Expert Panel Elicitation, Environmental Science and Technology, 44 (1), pp 476-482
- Knol et al., 2009 Expert elicitation on health effects related to exposure to ultrafine particles: likelihood of causality and causal pathways, Part Fibre.Toxicology 6:19
- Elicitation protocol
used in above two studies: www.nusap.net/ufp
Log in with:
username: ufp
password: workshop
Waste heath effect: scientific evidence and policies
- INTARESE, 2010 Waste Assessment report
- Craye, M., J.P. van der Sluijs and S. Funtowicz (2005), A reflexive approach to dealing with uncertainties in environmental health risk science and policy, International Journal for Risk Assessment and Management, 5 (2), p. 216-236
- Francesco Forastiere et al. 2011, Health impact assessment of waste management facilities in three European countries Environmental Health 2011, 10:53
From quality of study designs to quality of evidence: the GRADE,approach to formulate recommendations to patients, clinicians and policy makers
- GRADE guidelines
- GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations
Inequalities in health and public actions (national and EU projects)
- Instructions for reading / Descrizione dei materiali
- Mackenbach_overview health_new eng j med 2008 + comment
- costa_spadea_proof.pdf
- Costa_challenges_e&p 2010.pdf
- mackenbach_strategy failure_ssm 2010.pdf
- EUROGBD-SE_project description.pdf
Burden of disease assessment
- Knol et al., 2009 Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment
Hands on experience with KQA