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Robust knowledge for Sustainability
  • Policies for sustainability cannot wait until all the facts are known.
  • We must plan and implement radical changes in technology and lifestyle, in spite of irreducible uncertainty, ignorance, and value-conflicts.
  • The commitment of all of civil society is necessary for such changes to be accomplished; thus sustainability is a moral issue.
  • The relevant knowledge base must be robust in relation to the constraints and demands of this new context of use.
  • It must be designed to be fit for its various functions in the discursive, inclusive policy processes on complex issues that are essential for consensus.
  • All stakeholders (including those who produce, use and are affected by policy-relevant knowledge) should be equipped with tools for a critical self-awareness of their engagement with that knowledge.
  • These are now being created by developments based on the insights of NUSAP and Post-Normal Science.
  • In that way we will achieve the robust knowledge that is essential for sustainability.

Jerry Ravetz, 14-08-2002

This website is maintained by Jeroen van der Sluijs (editor-in-chief, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, e-mail: j.p.vandersluijs@uu.nl), Silvio Funtowicz, Jerry Ravetz, Serafin Corral Quintana, James Risbey and Ângela Guimaraes Pereira.

PNS 5 Symposium - 21-23 Sept 2020, Florence
Posted by Jeroen on Friday, June 14 2019 @ 10:10:00 CEST (4369 reads)
News and announcements PNS 5 Symposium: Knowledge, Science Practices and Integrity: Quality through Post-Normal Science Lenses.
University of Florence (Florence, IT)
Palazzo Fenzi-Marucelli
21-23 September 2020

PNS5 Website

As science's inter-penetration with technology, finance, politics and mass-media becomes ever more profound, new challenges arise. Scientific practices are becoming increasingly diverse — for example, as citizen science, DIY and makers movements gain prominence, and traditional, local and indigenous knowledge are (re)valued. Plurality in the forms of knowledge increases complexity. In this context, the protection of integrity and quality of knowledge includes critical thinking about science itself. New demarcations are needed, between science practices with qualities that are negotiated with society, and practices that are shoddy, entrepreneurial, opportunistic, reckless, vacuous, or outright dirty. Confronting issues at the science-technology-policy interface with PNS lenses yields something more rigorously managed than politics, less precise than laboratory science, more challenging than either of them, and with the potential to restore integrity to science practice and prudence in policy advice.
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PNS 4 Symposium: Post-normal science as a movement
Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, February 01 2018 @ 16:24:07 CET (7477 reads)
News and announcements Post-normal science as a movement: between informed critical resistance, reform and the making of futures

@Barcelona, 15-17 November 2018

Call for contributions
Science, as it stands today, faces a crisis of public and political trust, combined with an inner erosion of standards of quality and integrity. Scientific findings are increasingly recognised as neither as reliable, nor reproducible, as they used to be portrayed. Beliefs in, and self-declarations of, the disinterestedness of scientific endeavours, separated from vested interest, political agenda or social and cultural context are recognised as empirically and philosophically problematic. Scientific elites are, for better or for worse, challenged by an erosion of trust on a par with that experienced by political elites in modern societies. Scientific institutions charged with higher education face demands of high societal relevance and impact which they do not know how to meet and how to prepare for.

This crisis on multiple fronts calls for a fundamental reform. Post-normal science (PNS) offers direction to such a reform, as a critical concept challenging mainstream practices of science, as an inspiration for new styles of research practice, and as an inspiration and support for new conventions of research quality assurance that better respond to the post-normal conditions of today's societal challenges. This multifaceted nature of PNS is both descriptive and normative. It provides a framework for describing and diagnosing urgent decision problems – post-normal issues – characterized by incomplete, uncertain or contested knowledge and high decision stakes, and critical reflection on how these characteristics change the relationship between science and governance. At the same time, PNS inspires a movement of critical resistance and reform towards a new style of scientific inquiry and practice that is reflexive, inclusive (in the sense that it seeks upstream engagement of extended peer communities) and transparent in regards to scientific uncertainty, ignorance, values and framings, and moving into a direction of democratisation of expertise.

This fourth PNS symposium [PNS1 in Bergen, NO, PNS2 in Ispra, IT (summarized in a recent special issue of Futures) and PNS3 in Tübingen, DE] provides a platform to discuss and explore the guidance that post-normal science can offer in finding a way out of the present crisis in and around science.

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Futures Special Issue on Post Normal Science in Practice
Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, June 01 2017 @ 21:31:07 CEST (6173 reads)
News and announcements Futures Special Issue on Post Normal Science in Practice
Guest editors: Dorothy Dankel, Nora Vaage and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs

Dankel, D.J., Vaage, N.S., Van der Sluijs, J.P. (2017) Editorial: Post-Normal Science in Practice. Futures.
Saltelli, A., & Funtowicz, S.O. (2017). What is science’s crisis really about? Futures.
Kønig, N., Børsen, T. and Emmeche, C. (2017). The ethos of Post-normal science. Futures.
Hiis Hauge, K. and Barwell, R. (2017). Post-normal science and mathematics education: educating future citizens for extended peer communities. Futures.
Benessia, A., & De Marchi, B. (2017). When the earth shakes ... and science with it. The management and communication of uncertainty in the L’Aquila earthquake. Futures.
Wildschut, D. (2017). The need for citizen science in the transition to a sustainable peer-to-peer-society. Futures.
Guimaraes Pereira, Â, and Saltelli, A. (2017). Post-normal Institutional Identities: Re-inventing Advice to Policy. Futures.
Saltelli, A., & Giampietro, M. (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy? Futures.
Bremer, S. (2017). Have we given up too much? On yielding climate representation to experts. Futures.
Verrax, F. (2017). Engineering ethics and post-normal science: A French perspective. Futures.
Kovacic, Z. (2017). Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity. Futures.
Tsukahara, T. (2017). New Currents in Science: The Challenge of Quality, examining the discrepancies and incongruities between Japanese technoscientific policy and the citizens' science movement in post-3/11 Japan. Futures.
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PNS3 Symposium: Post-truth and a crisis of trust? 25-26 Sept 2017, Tübingen
Posted by Jeroen on Tuesday, May 09 2017 @ 12:31:07 CEST (8509 reads)
News and announcements Perspectives from post-normal science and extended citizen participation

@Tübingen, 25-26 September 2017

Venue
University of Tübingen, “Alte Aula”, Münzgasse 30, Tübingen, Germany
25th September 2017 10:00 AM - 26th September 04:00 PM

Call for contributions Discussions of recent political events – most notably the presidential election in the United States and the referendum in the United Kingdom to (Br)exit the European Union - frequently refer to ideas of ‘post-truth’, ‘post-evidence’ or ‘post-factual’ politics. In its ambiguity, the idea of a ‘post-truth’ age manifests a crisis of trust in both democratic and scientific institutions. At the same time, it implies the untenable assumption that politics and policies were once, and should be again, based on a unique truth provided by science (comprising the whole spectrum of natural and social sciences, and humanities).

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New Currents in Science: The Challenges of Quality 3-4 March 2016, Ispra, Italy
Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, December 17 2015 @ 00:00:00 CET (7447 reads)
News and announcements This is an announcement and invitation to contribute or to participate to the forthcoming workshop organised by DDG01/Science and Technology Studies Project:

New Currents in Science: The Challenges of Quality 3-4 March 2016, Ispra, Italy

Deadline for abstracts: 15 January 2016.

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Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication - Revised edition
Posted by Jeroen on Tuesday, June 10 2014 @ 11:43:21 CEST (13618 reads)
After a decade of fruitful use and further methodological development, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency publishes the second edition of its Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication. The first edition was published by PBL’s predecessor, RIVM/MNP, in 2003. Without adequate attention for the implications of uncertainty, there is a risk of compromising the credibility of assessment studies. The Guidance is intended as an instrument to guide analysts, in order for them to reach thorough conclusions that reflect the underlying uncertainties and provide maximum transparency.

download the report (PDF, 976 kB)
web application first edition
Guide for Uncertainty Communication
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Guide for Uncertainty Communication
Posted by Jeroen on Tuesday, June 10 2014 @ 11:36:31 CEST (12536 reads)
News and announcements Dealing with uncertainty, in terms of analysis and communication, is an important and distinct topic for PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Without paying adequate attention to the role and implications of uncertainty, research and assessment results may be of limited value and could lead to incorrect policy decisions and all the related consequences.

Download the report (PDF 1MB)
Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication

Further reading:
Wardekker et al. 2008: Uncertainty Communication in Environmental Assessments: Views from the Dutch Science-Policy interface
Background report: Uncertainty Communication: Issues and good practice.
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Recent journal articles on Post Normal Science and Knowledge Quality Assessment
Posted by Jeroen on Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 05:47:15 CEST (17733 reads)
News and announcements Post-normal reflections on the Science-Policy Interface Methods for knowledge quality assessment Case studies applying tools for knowledge quality assessment
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Nature and Culture 2012 special issue: Climate Change as Post Normal Science
Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, September 20 2012 @ 15:44:48 CEST (15873 reads)
News and announcements Special Issue of Nature and Culture 7 (2) pp 121-230 Post Normal Climate Science This special symposium grew out of a workshop held in Hamburg in 2011
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Sensitivity Auditing
Posted by Jeroen on Friday, November 25 2011 @ 12:11:02 CET (31387 reads)
News and announcements Sensitivity Auditing, recommended reading:
  • Andrea Saltelli (2011) Sensitivity auditing. Gauging model quality in relation to model use.
  • Andrea Saltelli (2002) Global Sensitivity Analysis: An Introduction. EU ISPRA
  • Andrea Saltelli and Beatrice D’Hombres (2010) Sensitivity analysis didn’t help. A practitioner’s critique of the Stern review. Global Environmental Change 20 (2010) 298–302.
  • Andrea Saltelli and Paola Annoni (2010). How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis, Environmental Modelling & Software 25, 1508-1517.
  • Andrea Saltelli and Silvio Funtowicz (2004) The Precautionary Principle: implications for risk management strategies International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health, 2004; 17(1): 47-58.
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    STH Special issue on Post Normal Science
    Posted by jeroen on Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 14:53:31 CEST (19045 reads)
    News and announcements Special issue on Post Normal Science, Science, Technology & Human Values May 2011
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    Futures Special Issue on Post Normal Science
    Posted by jeroen on Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 14:52:32 CEST (19139 reads)
    News and announcements Special Issue on Post Normal Science, Futures, March 2011
    A selection of papers from the symposium "Post Normal Science – perspectives & prospectives 26-27th June 2009: Oxford On the occasion of the 80th birthday of Jerry Ravetz, has been published in a special issue of Futures.
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    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty
    Posted by jeroen on Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 13:40:04 CEST (15734 reads)
    News and announcements Download thesisExpected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some degree, but their suitability depends on the specific situation. For instance, some approaches work well under deep uncertainty, while others perform better under lower levels of uncertainty. This thesis presents several empirical studies on climate change impacts & adaptation under uncertainty in actual adaptation decision-situations. Methods used include expert elicitation, document analysis, empirical workshops, discourse analysis, literature review, and case-study analysis.
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    Book launch: Science for Policy
    Posted by Jeroen on Wednesday, October 21 2009 @ 23:29:10 CEST (16986 reads)
    News and announcements A new book "Science for Policy" edited by Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz appeared with Oxford University Press (India).

    On Thursday 5 November the book will be launched at the Université de Versailles St-Quentin-en-Yvelines (Guyancourt site), in the presence of both editors and most of the contributors.

    This volume discusses the changing role of science in policymaking. Producers and users of science and technology for policy are increasingly aware of the need to change the ways in which knowledge is produced and deployed, especially science‐based knowledge used to foster, support, or legitimize policy decision making. The challenge is to develop new decision‐making styles in order to cope with deep uncertainty, even ignorance, about facts, and in a plurality of value systems.

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    NUSAP used in undergraduate science education at Aalborg University
    Posted by Jeroen on Tuesday, October 13 2009 @ 14:45:51 CEST (10194 reads)
    News and announcements A group of students from Aalborg University applied the NUSAP approach to the risk of methane migration into houses situated on the terminated landfill “Skrænten” in Hjørring, Denmark”. The team consists of Marie Inger Dam, Jon Kjær Jensen, Jóhann Gunnar Jónsson, Mathias Krause Kristensen, Ane Katrine Mortensen, Ole Papsø, Mette Skovmand and Tom Børsen. Their report "Inclusion of Pedigree-analysis (NUSAP) in undergraduate science education: An example" is now available. It may serve as an example and source of inspiration for other students and professors who would like to use NUSAP in BSc and MSc education.
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    New Report: Tool catalogue frame-based information tools
    Posted by Jeroen on Friday, May 29 2009 @ 12:33:08 CEST (21235 reads)
    News and announcements A new report Tool catalogue frame-based information tools has been published.

    In the perception, knowledge production and policymaking on complex issues (‘wicked problems’), such as climate change, frames and framing play an important but often hidden role. Frames relate to one’s ‘schemas of interpretation’; the conceptual images, values, starting points, and mental models that one may have of an issue. This can include, for instance, one’s problem definition, perceptions of the cause-effect relationships in an issue, one’s primary goals, perception of one’s and others’ roles and responsibilities relating to the issue, and views on suitable strategies and interaction with (other) stakeholders
    Differences in frames can lead to miscommunication and conflicts. This tool catalogue is intended as an idea-guide and eye-opener for organisations who are confronted with framing-related issues and who want to take these into account when developing knowledge, policy, or viewpoints. The catalogue does not aim to give a complete list of methods. Rather, it will present a number of characteristic examples of how various tools deal with framing. Some suggestions will be given on the situations for which these approaches are most suitable. For more extensive overviews of participatory methods, refer to the various stakeholder participation guidelines and catalogues that are available (several references have been included in the present document).

    Download Tool catalogue frame-based information tools

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    Recent journal articles on Post Normal Science and Uncertainty
    Posted by Jeroen on Friday, May 29 2009 @ 11:53:22 CEST (21314 reads)
    News and announcements An overview of recent papers in the field of Post Normal Science
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    Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions
    Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, January 22 2009 @ 15:21:00 CET (31941 reads)
    News and announcements A new report Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions for its use in environmental health impact assessments has been published. It provides practical guidance on organising expert panels to assess uncertainty and risk.

    Download Expert Elicitation report

    This document contains three parts: (1) an introduction, (2) an overview with building blocks and methodological suggestions for a formal expert elicitation procedure; and (3) a literature list with key sources of information used and suggestions for further reading.
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    Uncertainty Communication: Issues and good practice.
    Posted by Jeroen on Wednesday, January 09 2008 @ 10:58:19 CET (33972 reads)
    News and announcements A practical guide to uncertainty communication has been developed for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. It offers background information on uncertainty communication, and contains suggestions and guidance on how to communicate uncertainties in environmental assessment reports to several target audiences in an adequate, clear, and systematic way. It is not claimed that this is the only way or the best way to communicate uncertainty information, but the guidance in this report draws upon insights from the literature, insights from an international expert workshop on uncertainty communication, and several uncertainty communication experiments in the Utrecht Policy Laboratory.
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    New report on uncertainty and climate change adaptation
    Posted by Jeroen on Friday, December 21 2007 @ 15:34:19 CET (20926 reads)
    News and announcements Copernicus Institute Utrecht University and Tyndall Centre for climate change research issued a new report reviewing state-of-the-art of methods and tools available in the literature in helping inform adaptation decisions under uncertainty. The report reviews existing frameworks for decision making under uncertainty for adaptation to climate change. It explores how different ways of including uncertainty in decision making match with uncertainty information provided by various uncertainty assessment methods. It reviews a broad range of areas of climate change impacts and impacted sectors of society and economy that may require a response of planned adaptation.
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    Categories
    · Archived articles (06/19)


    Past Articles
    Monday, October 15 2007

    · Towards a new paradigm of science in scientific policy advising


    Wednesday, April 11 2007

    · Post Normal Science, working deliberatively within imperfections


    Monday, July 31 2006

    · e-KAM SCHOOL E-Learning Course On Knowledge Assessment & Extended Participation


    Monday, September 26 2005

    · Global Systems Failures


    Tuesday, July 19 2005

    · The Precautionary Principle


    Sunday, February 27 2005

    · The Post-Normal Times


    Friday, February 25 2005

    · Interactive Web application of Uncertainty Guidance instruments


    Wednesday, October 20 2004

    · Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from UPEM


    Wednesday, September 01 2004

    · WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL NETWORK OF YOUNG PRACTITIONERS WORKING ON SCIENCE AND SOCIETY


    Wednesday, August 25 2004

    · Short Course Model Uncertainty Analysis (13-14 October 2004)


    Wednesday, July 28 2004

    · Summer school on sensitivity analysis in Venice


    Wednesday, May 26 2004

    · Course: Genetic engineering; Connecting science, risk and communities


    Tuesday, April 27 2004

    · Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management (UPEM 2004)


    Monday, April 26 2004

    · New book on sensitivity analysis


    Tuesday, March 16 2004

    · Uncertainty assessment of NOx, SO2 and NH3 emissions in the Netherlands


    Wednesday, March 03 2004

    · Safety Paradoxes - revised
    · Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties


    Saturday, November 29 2003

    · Professor Poul Harremoës died


    Monday, August 04 2003

    · Towards a synthesis of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty assessment


    Monday, July 21 2003

    · Workshop: Interfaces between science and society, 27-28 nov 2003, Milano


    Monday, June 23 2003

    · RIVM/MNP guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication


    Thursday, June 12 2003

    · Workshop: Uncertainty in environmental health risk science and policy


    Saturday, May 17 2003

    · Mini sysmposium:
    The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy



    Tuesday, January 28 2003

    · Symposium: Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management (June 2004)


    Tuesday, November 05 2002

    · Ruskin and the Scientists


    Tuesday, October 29 2002

    · The Precautionary Principle, Knowledge Uncertainty, and Environmental Assessment


    Monday, October 07 2002

    · MUST Session at November FP6 conference


    Thursday, September 12 2002

    · Safety in the Globalising Knowledge Economy


    Wednesday, June 19 2002

    · One day free course on Sensitivity Analysis at the JRC - Ispra.


    Friday, June 07 2002

    · Conference announcement: Foresight


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