The University of Georgia, through the Warnell School of Forest Resources, is pleased to offer a Short Course on "Uncertainty Analysis of Models for Water Quality Management" during 13-14 October, 2004. The course has been organized by Dr M Bruce Beck of the University of Georgia and features Dr Ken Reckhow of Duke University as a Guest Speaker.
Models are at the heart of the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) approach to water quality management. Accounting for uncertainty is increasingly essential in assessing the development and application of models across the entire range of EPA's responsibilities -- witness the recently released draft Guidance for Environmental Models of the Agency's Council on Regulatory Environmental Modeling (CREM).
Held in cooperation with the National Exposure Research Laboratory of the EPA in Athens, this course will introduce you to the methods/software of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses tailored to the needs of those mechanistic models, such as HSPF and SWAT, typically employed in the TMDL approach. The course focuses on:
Details are available at:
- Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), incorporating Monte Carlo simulation.
- Methods of model calibration and uncertainty analysis based on procedures of Controlled Random Search.
- Methods of model calibration and parameter estimation — and associated analyses of uncertainty — based on the algorithms of classical optimization.